🔗 Share this article

Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd