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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime underperformers improving together. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still